Vote Deficit Calculator

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To win, you don’t need to talk to every voter in your district. Once you have your win number, calculating your vote deficit is the next step as you plan your campaign’s targeting strategy. Your win number tells you how many votes you need to win; your vote deficit will tell you how many voters you need to persuade over and above your core base of supporters.

What’s your Vote Deficit?

  • What is your WIN Number?

    Don’t know your WIN Number? Get it here
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    In the end, you don’t need to persuade all of the voters in your win number because your campaign has a base. Your base, or floor, are the people who will vote in any election for your party or type of issue, no matter what. Note: this is different from how many votes your party or issue typically receives in an election – that is called a performance index and already assumes that persuasion has occurred.
  • Going back as far as you can, and at least 6-10 years, what were the three smallest percentages of the vote that candidates/issues like yours received?

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    If you’re in a partisan race, look for elections with the absolute lowest vote percentage that a candidate of your party received in your district. You don’t care what kind of race, as long as the district lines are the same, because you’re looking to find the diehard partisan voters on your side that you can count on, no matter what.

    For nonpartisan races look for candidates with similar backgrounds (e.g. labor versus business candidates) and geographies (e.g. where they live or who they represent) and then find races that were for similar offices during comparable election cycles. Calculate the three lowest races just as you would a partisan race.

    Issue or ballot measure campaigns are trickier. Rarely are the exact same issues run more than once before, and often, it will be the first time on the ballot. If possible, use previous campaign results that are as close as possible to the issue on the ballot. This is where local expertise is needed to further refine the number.

  • Your campaign needs more people than in your base to win

    Results based on your WIN Number of 0 Recalculate
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