What if there are more than two candidates in my race?
- The number of candidates
- The competitiveness of the campaign
- Whether it is multiple candidates vying for one seat or multiple candidates vying for multiple seats.
Calculating Vote Goals for Multi-Candidate Races:
Step 1: Turnout for the last three relevant elections:
(year 1 turnout + year 2 turnout + year 3 turnout)/ 3 = Average Turnout %
i.e. : in 2015, 4% turned out for the Mayoral; in 2013, 3%; in 2011, 5%
Step 2: Average Turnout % * Current Voter Registration = Expected Turnout #
Step 3: This part depends on the number of people in your election. X = Total number of candidates running
If 10+ Candidates:
Expected Turnout # / (X - 5) = Vote Goal
If 5-9 Candidates:
Expected Turnout # / (X - 3) = Vote Goal
If 2-4 Candidates:
Expected Turnout # / X = Vote Goal